If you trade U.S. equities, your P&L on any given month is shaped less by the companies you own and more by three calendar events: the FOMC announcement, the CPI release, and the monthly jobs report (NFP).
Knowing the schedule isn't optional. Knowing the typical reaction matters even more.
FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) — 8 times per year
The Fed sets interest rates. The decisions are announced at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesdays, eight times per year. Powell's press conference starts at 2:30 PM ET.
The two events that move markets:
- The rate decision and statement (2:00 PM) — Are rates up, down, or held?
- The press conference (2:30 PM) — Forward guidance, dot plot interpretation, Powell's tone.
The market usually reacts in three phases:
| Time | What happens |
|---|---|
| 2:00 PM | Initial price reaction to the statement (~30 sec) |
| 2:00-2:30 PM | Sideways chop while traders parse the statement |
| 2:30-3:30 PM | Big moves during Powell's Q&A |
Powell's tone matters more than the rate decision itself. The dollar amount of the rate change is usually priced in beforehand.
CPI (Consumer Price Index) — once per month
Inflation data. Released at 8:30 AM ET on the second Wednesday of each month (sometimes later — check the BLS calendar).
What the market watches:
- Headline CPI (year-over-year and month-over-month)
- Core CPI (strips out food and energy — the Fed's preferred measure)
- Shelter inflation (largest single component, slowest to move)
- Services ex-shelter (the Fed's "supercore" focus)
Consensus matters. The market prices in an expectation; the actual print only moves things if it's a surprise.
Rule of thumb: A 0.1% surprise in core CPI can move the S&P 500 by 1-2%. A 0.3% surprise can move it 3-5%.
The reaction logic:
- Hotter than expected → Fed has to stay hawkish → rates stay high → stocks down, bonds down
- Cooler than expected → Fed can cut → rates fall → stocks up, bonds up
CPI mornings have some of the highest realized volatility of any pre-market session. Options on SPY and QQQ are often expensive going in.
NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) — first Friday of each month
The monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, released at 8:30 AM ET on the first Friday of each month.
Five numbers to scan:
- Headline jobs added (consensus vs. actual)
- Unemployment rate
- Average hourly earnings (wage inflation — Fed cares deeply)
- Labor force participation rate
- Revisions to the previous two months
The complicated part: NFP often gets revised the next month. A "strong" 250K print can become 180K when revisions hit.
The market reaction logic has shifted since 2022. In the QE era, strong jobs = strong economy = bullish stocks. In a Fed-fighting-inflation regime, strong jobs = wage pressure = Fed stays hawkish = stocks down. This is the "good news is bad news" pattern.
It can flip again. The market's current obsession determines the reaction. As of 2026, focus has rotated back toward growth/recession concerns more than inflation.
How to trade around these events
The cautious approach: Don't be in big directional positions through these releases. Volatility expansion can crush short-dated options and shake out tight stops on equities.
The opportunistic approach: Sell premium going into them. IV is rich beforehand because the market is pricing in big moves. If the actual move is smaller than priced, you make money on the IV crush even if direction was wrong.
The wheel-strategy approach (what most Tradevada users do):
| Days before event | Action |
|---|---|
| 5+ | Open new positions normally |
| 2-3 | Avoid opening new short-dated puts |
| Day of | Hold existing positions, don't open or close unless forced |
| Day after | Re-assess; volatility usually compresses |
The mistake to avoid: closing positions during the IV expansion before the event. You're paying premium twice — once when you sold it, again when you buy it back at peak fear.
Where to find the calendar
Three sources I'd actually use:
- BLS.gov (NFP, CPI release schedule)
- FederalReserve.gov (FOMC dates, statements, dot plots)
- Inside Tradevada's Events tab — we pull these in
Mark them on your calendar. Plan around them. Your future self will thank you.